Overdue Fish finally hits his stride
Tennis Betting Lines
07/26/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Minnesota native Mardy Fish is currently enjoying the best stretch of his tennis career since joining the pro ranks 10 years ago.
Don't look now, but the 28-year-old American has now won his last two tournaments, both on U.S. soil, and has performed in no less than three finals in his last four events.
That's hot!
The big-serving Fish's most recent success came in Atlanta last week, as he came from behind to beat 6-foot-9 John Isner in an all-American final at the hardcourt Atlanta Tennis Championships. Isner, of course, made some history in the opening round at Wimbledon last month by playing in the longest-ever tennis match -- a three-day, 11-plus-hour epic against unlucky Frenchman Nicolas Mahut.
Fish's spirited run started with a trip to the final at the grass-court Wimbledon tune-up at The Queen's Club last month. Unfortunately for Fish, he was unable to top Sam Querrey in that particular all-American finale.
Then, two weeks ago in Newport, Fish ran the table for his first title of 2010, as he handled vertically-challenged Belgian Olivier Rochus in a grass- court title tilt on the grounds of the International Tennis Hall of Fame.
And his torrid run continued last week in "Hotlanta," where he posted a very- hard-fought 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 (7-4) victory over the towering Isner, who starred collegiately at the nearby University of Georgia, in 2 hours, 45 minutes to give the Minnesotan only his fifth career title in his sixteenth final. The once-fitness-challenged Fish also had to overcome some extreme heat in order to outlast Isner, as on-court temperatures approached 150 degrees on Sunday. A dehydrated Fish required an IV after the match.
The 6-foot-2 backhand-mashing Fish is now riding a 10-match winning streak, and the only final he failed to reach in his last four outings was Wimbledon, where he gave way to Germany's Florian Mayer in disappointing fashion in the second round.
"This is as top as I've ever been," Fish said on Sunday. "I've never won two tournaments in one year, I've never won two tournaments in a row, and on the ATP Tour, I've never won 10 matches in a row. It's probably as good as it's been."
His biggest wins during this stretch may not have been the championship ones over Isner and Rochus, but rather ones against world No. 4 star Andy Murray at The Queen's Club and former world No. 1 Andy Roddick in Atlanta. Fish stunned Murray in a third-rounder in London on his way to the finale there, upending the Aussie Open runner-up Scot in three sets, including a match-deciding tiebreak, and he surprised his good friend Roddick, the top seed in the ATL, in straight sets in a semifinal last week.
Note: Four of Fish's five wins in Atlanta came against fellow countrymen.
The in-form 2004 Olympic silver medalist Fish, who's shed 30 pounds over the last year, is now up to No. 35 in the world, after starting the year at No. 55. He soared as high as No. 17 on the planet back in 2004, but was outside the top 100 as recently as this past March. The versatile Fish reached a career-high No. 14 in doubles at one point last season.
A two-time Grand Slam quarterfinalist (2007 Aussie Open, 2008 U.S. Open), Fish has always had this type of potential, but we all know what that word means. And it doesn't mean much of anything if you don't put in the hard work, which Fish, in the past, has been accused of not doing. The ATP's 2006 Comeback Player of the Year has also battled a series of injuries over the years, including a knee injury that required surgery last fall.
But it's safe to say that Fish is finally firing on all cylinders right now.
On the personal front, Fish is married to the beautiful Stacey Gardner, an attorney and former "Briefcase Model" on the television show "Deal or No Deal." And, former top-five tennis star James Blake served as a groomsman at their wedding two years ago.
For his senior year of high school, Fish attended Boca Prep in Boca Raton, Florida, where he and Roddick were classmates. In 1999, Fish lived with Roddick's family, and the two promising young tennis prodigies played on the same tennis and basketball teams.
How 'bout that?
Also, Fish's father, Tom, is a tennis teaching professional.
The surging Fish is in the draw at this week's hardcourt ATP event in Los Angeles, where he's the eighth seed.
Can he make it three in a row?
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Steve Zakuani of Seattle Sounders FC was voted Major League Soccer Player of the Week for Week 17 of the 2010 MLS season on Monday. Zakuani scored both of Seattle's goals in a 2-1 win over the Co
<< Hornets GM says Paul did not ask for trade at meeting
New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Three-time All-Star point guard Chris Paul
met with Hornets management Monday, and new general manager Dell Demps
reportedly said Paul did not ask to be traded.
According to The Times-Picayune, D
<< Rachel Alexandra gains spot in poll after Monmouth victory
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra
moved into third in the latest NTRA National Thoroughbred Poll. The four-year-
old filly advanced one position following a win Saturday at Monmouth Park.
Owned b
<< Vick cleared to play by NFL
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Michael Vick is clear to play this season,
the NFL announced Monday.
Posting on his Twitter account, league spokesman Greg Aiello said in regard to
Vick, "there has been no change in his playing status. Be
<< NHLPA files grievance on behalf of Kovalchuk
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ilya Kovalchuk's free agency saga took another
turn on Monday when the NHL Players' Association filed a grievance on behalf
of the Russian superstar who had his 17-year, $102 million contract with New
Jersey
College Station, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Texas A&M wide receivers coach Steve Kragthorpe has resigned to tend to family medical issues, the school announced Monday. Kragthorpe joined the Texas A&M staff in February after head coac
Haren to make Angels debut Monday >>
Anaheim, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dan Haren will make his Angels debut Monday
night, one day after being acquired in a blockbuster trade from the Arizona
Diamondbacks.
Haren will take the hill for the Halos in the series opener at Ange
Orioles' Scott earns AL weekly honor >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Baltimore Orioles outfielder Luke Scott has
been named the American League Player of the Week for the period ending July
25.
Scott hit an AL-leading four home runs and added three doubles and eight runs
Cubs' Ramirez earns NL weekly honors >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago Cubs third baseman Aramis Ramirez has
been named the National League Player of the Week for the period ending July
25.
The 32-year-old slugger hit .360 and his four home runs tied for the lead in
Schiavone opener suspended in Istanbul >>
Istanbul, Turkey (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - French Open champion Francesca Schiavone
will have to wait until Tuesday to complete her opening-round match at the
$220,000 Istanbul Cup tennis event.
The top-seeded Schiavone was leading Brit Anne
How to bet pro football
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sportsbook accepts U.S. credit cards
Sportsbooks That Take US Credit Cards for NFL football betting
Sportsbooks that take credit cards are not always easy to come by....Everything from credit card companies denying gambling transactions to the fear of chargebacks by customers has slowed down sportsbook credit card transactions by a high percentage.
There are however still sportsbooks that take credit cards.
When using your credit card it is highly recommended that you try either: MySportsbook.com or Sportsbooks.com. Both sportsbooks have a high rate of accepting credit cards and will save you the time and hassle of looking around the web to make a credit card transaction.
Furthermore, Sportsbooks.com is one of the oldest sportsbooks on the web and Sportsbook offers security in that they are the biggest online sportsbook in the world! Publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange, they are ROCK SOLID!