Trojans kick off Kiffin era on road against Warriors
NCAA Football Betting Lines
09/01/2010 - Honolulu, HI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A new era in USC football begins on Thursday as new head coach Lane Kiffin leads his 14th-ranked Trojans into Honolulu to face the Hawaii Warriors in a non-conference showdown.
Kiffin, who was previously an assistant at USC, has taken over for Pete Carroll who once again has jumped to the NFL and will be handling the action with the Seattle Seahawks this year. The Trojans currently own a streak of 16 straight non-conference wins, yet no matter the score of this game or the rest of the outings on the schedule in 2010, there's no reward for success because the team has been banned from postseason play due to NCAA violations.
Leaving Tennessee unceremoniously after just one year, where he had a mere 7-6 record and was 4-4 in SEC play, Kiffin is back in his old stomping grounds with a USC squad that finished 9-4 a year ago, but was a mere 5-4 in the Pac-10 after being such a dominant force in the league for so many years. The team alternated wins and losses for the last seven games and closed with a 24-13 win over Boston College in the Emerald Bowl, the first non-BCS bowl for the program since 2001.
Meanwhile the host Warriors, a team that is 19-15 in home openers at Aloha Stadium, they are kicking off a campaign against the Trojans for the third time since 1999, even though they are just 15-34 all-time against members of the Pac-10 Conference. Head coach Greg McMackin, who is no stranger to controversy himself, is beginning his third year as the lead man in Honolulu with a squad that put up a 6-7 mark last season. Against fellow members of the Western Athletic Conference, the Warriors posted a 3-5 mark a season ago as they went on to score a mere 22.8 ppg to mark their weakest effort in that department in more than a decade.
As far as the all-time series between these two schools is concerned, USC has taken all six previous encounters by outscoring the Warriors by a combined 297-67 dating back to 1930. The most recent battle took place in 2005 when the Trojans posted a 63-17 blowout, the third straight game in which USC logged at least 61 points, but that victory has since been vacated due to NCAA penalty.
On the watch list for the Maxwell, Manning and Davey O'Brien Awards heading into this season, quarterback Matt Barkley is the centerpiece around which the USC offense has been created. Barkley, who became the first true freshman to start a season opener at quarterback for USC, returns after completing close to 60 percent of his passes for 2,735 yards and 15 scores in 2009.
"The way he's moving around in the pocket and the things that he's seeing, obviously it's not a game situation, but we are very excited about what he's done for us over these 14 practices and what he can do for us in the future," is what coach Kiffin said of Barkley's progression during practices earlier this year.
One of Barkley's main outlets will again be Stanley Havli, a three-year starter who to this point already has made more catches (84) than any other fullback in USC history. Joining Havli in the backfield is tailback Allen Bradford who gained 668 yards and scored eight times for the unit a year ago, not to mention C.J. Gable who has also contributed significant numbers during his career.
Starting half the season a year ago, wideout Ronald Johnson is expected to put up strong numbers in 2010 after reeling in 34 balls for three touchdowns in 2009. Also in the mix out on the wings are Brice Butler and Brandon Carswell, who combined for 25 receptions and a pair of scores after starting just four games.
In 2007, the scoring defense for the Trojans ranked second in the nation with just 16.0 ppg allowed and in 2008 the group was even more dominating as it limited foes to a mere nine points per contest to rank first in the country. But last year the group took a few steps back as they surrendered 19.9 ppg, placing them 22nd in the country, even though they were still first in the Pac-10. Part of the problem was giving up 55 points to Stanford, the most points ever scored against the Trojans, and that came during a stretch when the program was allowing an average of nearly 35 ppg and an unsightly 455.6 ypg.
The unit has lost five of its top 10 tacklers from a year ago, but getting things kicked off on the right foot is junior tackle Jurrell Casey who logged 59 stops, nine tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. Even though the group was inexperienced in 2009, the Trojans have to be happy about getting guys like Malcolm Smith and Chris Galippo, the latter being an All-America selection, back at a couple of linebacker positions. Michael Morgan, who led the team with his 13 TFLs, is also back to patrol the middle of the field for the group.
The weakest part of the defense for the Trojans will be the secondary as the squad replaces all four defensive backs from a year ago, something that doesn't exactly bode well as they kick things off against a pass-happy program like Hawaii. Even though he is inexperienced in terms of game action, cornerback Shareece Wright will be expected to provide some level of leadership seeing as how he is the only senior on scholarship in the defensive backfield.
After ranking just 28th in the nation in passing in 2008 with 251.3 ypg, the Hawaii offense went back to the drawing board to get the attack back on track and it appeared to get the job done in 2009 by ranking third in the country with 337.0 ypg through the air. However, unlike previous years when the team had a high profile gunslinger whipping the ball all around the field, the squad had to turn to Bryant Moniz after Greg Alexander was sidelined with a season-ending injury early on.
Moniz, who completed 57.1 percent of his passes for 14 touchdowns and 10 picks, stepped into the role rather well given the circumstances. The good news is that the junior will have senior slot receiver Greg Salas to lean on yet again. A First Team All-WAC performer as a junior in '09, Salas ranked fourth in the nation in receiving yards per game with 122.3, so he can clearly shoulder any load that the offense puts on him.
Losing Leon Wright-Jackson at the running back spot will be a tough hurdle to clear, but Alex Green should be able to pick up some of the slack after he gained 453 yards and scored twice as the second-best option a year ago coming out of the backfield. However, having Moniz and Alexander listed as the third- and four-best options, respectively, carrying the ball is not a luxury the offense should have in 2010.
In an effort to breath new life into the offense, coach McMackin has brought Mouse Davis back to the sidelines and is expecting the move to pay big dividends.
"We're very fortunate to get the architect of the run-and-shoot to come back to Hawaii and coach our wide receivers. "He taught the run-and-shoot to me, June (Jones), Ron (Lee), and everyone else in the country who runs this offense. He's been the single, most influential person in the passing game from high school to the professional level, in my opinion."
As poor as the rushing attack was for the team a year ago, ranking 109th in the nation with just 100.5 ypg, the run defense was just as shaky with a monstrous 201.9 ypg allowed and that simply cannot be the case in 2010 if this group is going to advance in a positive direction. The pass defense should be a different story, given how well they performed in the final five games of the '09 season. Mana Silva showed a nose for the ball with his six interceptions and will again be one to watch at the safety position, while Lemetrius Davis and Spencer Smith play close to receivers and make their presence felt.
While the defensive line gets some support from a couple of transfers, the area of most concern for the Warriors is at linebacker where the starters have a combined four games of experience. Redshirt freshman George Daily-Lyles, Paipai Falemalu and Corey Paredes will all be thrown into the fire and expected to produce as soon as possible in order to keep this team from being taken advantage of.
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Betting the NFL preseason
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.